Statistical Prediction of Summer Rainfall and Vegetation in the Ethiopian Highlands
Submitted by Mark R Jury on
PDF version| Title | Statistical Prediction of Summer Rainfall and Vegetation in the Ethiopian Highlands |
| Publication Type | Journal Article |
| Year of Publication | 2014 |
| Authors | Jury, MR |
| Journal | ADVANCES IN METEOROLOGY |
| Pagination | 294639 |
| Type of Article | Article |
| ISSN | 1687-9309 |
| Abstract | Year-to-year fluctuations of Ethiopia climate are investigated to develop statistical predictions at one-season lead time. Satellite vegetation data from NASA and rainfall from ARC2 are the basis for analysis. The ``target'' seasons are May-July and August-October, while ``predictors'' are December-February and March-May, respectively. Global fields of surface temperature, sea level air pressure, and upper and lower level zonal winds are employed in point-to-field correlations. After step-wise multivariate regression, the leading predictors are: surface temperature across Europe (cold-favourable), 850 mb zonal winds over the tropical Atlantic (easterly-favourable), and surface temperature in the tropical Indian Ocean (cold-favourable). Predictive algorithms for early and late rainfall exhibit a consistent r(2) fit of similar to 0.50, while those for vegetation reach similar to 0.65 in late summer, indicating that fluctuations in food resources could be forewarned. |
| DOI | 10.1155/2014/294639 |
